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[The Grain Report] Ending Stocks Shock: 47 the week prior and four week average of 46 m.b. It is a good demand number but not bullish enough to over shadow our Tuesday USDA report influence. On my Friday report I said expect a lower open Monday on follow through from Friday's down limit trade. Expect short covering as the shorts have all the risk ahead of the Tuesday crop report as 6 of the last 7 reports showed lower ending stocks. We got it. After a 20 cent lower opening we saw short covering to up 20 cents at midsession. The crop report Tuesday showed our carry over or ending stocks come the start of our new grain marketing year and harvest September 1 at 1.438 billion bushels unchanged for the second consecutive month. They put world ending stocks at 110.4 up from 109.7 the month prior. Traders had expected a slight cut as exports have been running far ahead of a year ago but the USDA decided to wait. At some point unless demand falls off sharply the USDA will have to raise export projections. The next report is the March 31st planted acreage report and possibly the most awaited report in Ag history. Unless funds continue to take profits we look for this week to signal a near term March correction low to build longs into March 31st before a bigger dip in April occurs, then our rally into summer. Going into today we had first support for May at 5.54. A close below here and 5.40 is next major support. December new crop futures find minor support at 5.68 then 5.58 with our major support line at 5.34.
[Still hoping there is intelligent life somewhere in the universe] kwitsach_hadera @ 2008-03-27T12:37:00: Cutting several bushels of green beans last fall, I can tell you that it speeds the job having other people to socialize with and help out while I’m doing it! Group buying can also reduce the cost of plastic storage buckets, .
[Search Accounting] Why First World Entrepreneurs Are the Third Worlds Best Friend: Nestle, Hershey and other major chocolate purveyors were Ghana’s major customers for the cocoa bean. Rawling’s gripe: commodity prices were unfair to Ghanian growers based on the high retail prices enjoyed by the manufacturers as reflected in their finished products.
[Riot 4 Austerity] The Growing Challenge Week #5 (Part 3): Very soon I’ll start trying to germinate some greens in situ, underneath a frost cloth to see if I can get some results - we’re running low on salad greens finally!
[The Grain Report] Funds Go To The Bank: of beans were sold last week off 65% from the week prior and 69% under our four week average. China was absent from the list, after purchases the two prior weeks of 248 t.m.t. Not a good near term demand signal. Reason: Brazil's crop is coming to market and China is loading up on their crop over ours but the key is we are not seeing cancellations of previous U.S. purchases because Brazil is cheaper. China is keeping all they contracted for- Additionally, China will be back buying U.S. heavy again when South America's done delivery. China's Ag officials have stated this week they plan to build government reserves of beans and bean oil, additionally to meeting near term needs. This will keep not just our demand but world high protein crops in high demand through our fall harvest. After making new contract highs on all contracts to start the week we saw profit taking pull beans down while corn and wheat stayed strong. Reason, large trading funds decided to unwind their profitable spreads. They took their long soy oil, short soy meal spreads off. they took their long bean short CBT and KC wheat shorts off, and we saw unwinding of the long May short November spread they build since last fall. Remember, March is the last month of old crop up front futures trying to reach a high enough price to buy acres for the March 31st planted acreage report. The new crop November futures being the lead dog as all the risk will be in new crop fates during the planting and growing season. March contracts in deliver have no limits and at mission we are trading under May on out contracts that we are limit down. This suggests that if we close with the March contracts much lower than the differed contracts we could see a lower open Monday; but being that it is Friday the weekend could see remaining unfilled sell orders dry up and get cancelled. This giving us a better open. Shorts hold cover Monday, especially off a lower open ahead Tuesday's crop report on fear of a lower ending stocks number. Here is how the prior months read: February 160 million bushels. January 175, December 185, November 210, and October 215 m.b. This has been a big profit taking week for funds in soy oil, meal, beans sugar, coffee, cocoa and orange just. This is all part of what I have been talking about for about a month and that being there is to legs to our bull market. The first is the rally into March to buy acres for all the feed grains then profit taking and repositioning in new crop contracts for the spring through summer growing season when risk over production settles in. Our biggest rallies yet may occur if weather turns foul. November support today was 13.10 then 12.60.
[General Discussions] Rising Food Costs: "Recent pasta protests in Italy, tortilla rallies in Mexico and onion demonstrations in India are just the start of the social instability to come unless there is a fundamental shift to boost production of staple foods, warned Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute."
[Daily Chronicles of the American Civil War] Diary of a Rebel War Clerk””March 29, 1864: White beans, such as I paid $60 a bushel for early in this month, are now held at $75. What shall we do to subsist until the next harvest?
[In the Trenches with Gary Wilhelmi] Market Keys for March 13th: Weekly export 1.2 MT of corn is as expected, but wheat at 425000 and beans 389000 are below the recent average Brazilian harvest progressing well and beans are becoming more competitive Bakers want USDA to cut back on wheat exports to .
[Cure Hunger Blog] Hoppers for the Hungry: After watching a few episodes of “Are you smarter than a 5th grader” I realize that we might not all know what a bushel is and therefore may not get the full impact of a Hopper for the Hungry. A bushel is a large container - used to be a basket - about the size of those round plastic bins with plastic rope handles you can buy for laundry or use to store the kids’ toys.
[Climate Crisis Coalition - Daily News] Weekend Summary: With normal weather and yields, the crop would top 12.8 billion bushels, 1 billion bushels larger than the record set in 2004. Some analysts, including David Driscoll of Citigroup, said more than 13 billion bushels may be harvested.” .
[Food for Thought] Turkey Day, Part I: The Stats: In other words, Thanksgiving remains a bargain—but only if families stick to the traditional menu and buy conventionally produced fare.
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